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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.