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Just 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.