Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
